When is the Kentucky Derby 2025 and who should you bet on? As the “Run for the Roses” gears up for its coveted post time on Saturday, May 3 at 6:57 p.m. ET, the spotlight is on Journalism, the 3-1 morning-line favorite. But recent history shows the favorite hasn’t won in six consecutive years. Could we be in for another surprise? Let’s learn about three Kentucky Derby 2025 horses that have the potential to beat the favorite.
Why Journalism May Not Cross the Finish Line First
Journalism enters the Kentucky Derby 2025 after a strong showing in the Santa Anita Derby. Still, the betting favorite has faltered for the past six editions of this prestigious race. The past four Derby winners all had odds in double digits, with Rich Strike’s stunning 80-1 victory in 2022 standing out. That unpredictability is what makes this event so exciting.
As trainer Whit Beckman said, “You don’t need the best horse to win the race, but you need a horse that can handle the trip and handle the distance.” In a field where anything can happen, here are three horses worth watching closely.
1. Sovereignty – Built for the Distance
Trained by veteran Bill Mott, Sovereignty is the second choice on the morning line at 5-1. He already proved his ability to handle Churchill Downs by winning the Grade 3 Street Sense Stakes last October. That race included Tiztastic and Sandman, two other rivals from the Kentucky Derby 2025 field.
Most recently, Sovereignty finished second in the Florida Derby, in which he made a strong late effort. Mott is optimistic, saying, “We’ve probably never had as good a chance as we have this year.” His horse is known as a deep closer, which could bode well for him at 1 1/4 miles.
2. Burnham Square – Getting to the top at the right time
Burnham Square is coming off a dramatic rally after finishing last to first in the Blue Grass Stakes, showcasing his closing power and increasing consistency. With jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. – last year’s winning rider – at the helm, expectations are high.
His performance trajectory is also impressive: His Beyer Speed Figures have risen from 58 in his last race to a career-high 96. Trainer Ian Wilks is confident: “Putting the building blocks together, and just continuing to build for the Derby.”
Burnham Square’s strong late speed and form make him worth watching closely on Derby day.
3. Baeza – The Underdog With Hidden Power
Don’t overlook Baeza, a late entry into the Kentucky Derby 2025 due to the scratch of another horse. This lightly raced horse won his maiden title in February and ran a bold race in the Santa Anita Derby, challenging Journalism and finishing only three-quarters of a length behind.
Trainer John Shirreffs, who stunned the racing world in 2005 with 50-1 longshot Giacomo, sees potential in Baeza. “He got away most of the time… once he changed the lead, he took off again,” Shirreffs said. The horse may be inexperienced, but his effort shows potential.
Longshots to consider: Luxor Cafe and Tiztastic
Outside the top three, Luxor Cafe and Tiztastic are generating buzz. Luxor Cafe, a 15-1 shot, comes in on a four-race winning streak and defeated UAE Derby winner Admire Daytona earlier this year. His lineage includes Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, and he is showing solid form heading into the Derby.
Tiztastic, at 20-1, won the Louisiana Derby, one of the few races longer than 1 1/8 miles. That endurance could benefit him as the field stretches to 1 1/4 miles.
What’s Next?
The Kentucky Derby 2025 start time is set for May 3 at 6:57 p.m. ET, and fans around the world are preparing for one of the most unpredictable races in recent history. Will journalism break the curse of the favorite? Or will a late closer or longshot steal the spotlight again?
Smart bettors are keeping their options open. For those looking for depth in the sector and a more up-to-date trend, exploring options such as Sovereignty, Burnham Square or Beza could prove worthwhile.
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